The United States national elections are less than a month away. As seen in both the presidential and vice-presidential debates, climate change and environmental policy are major discussion points in this election campaign. The results of the upcoming election will be key in deciding the environmental path of the U.S. over the coming four years. It is important to understand the Democratic and Republican party platforms, understand each has potential implications for economic and environmental policy changes, and consider the long-term implications that these policies will have on industry. Although the focus of this article is on the presidential elections, the ability for either party to implement its platform can be materially aided or hindered by party control of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate that will result from the November election regardless of which party wins the White House.

Democratic Party Platform on Environmental Policy

The Democratic Party has controlled the executive branch over the last three and half years. Two key acts that were passed during the current administration were the “CHIPS and Science Act” and “Inflation Reduction Act”. The CHIPS and Science Act invested in funding of new onshore semiconductor supply chains in the U.S., created jobs, supported American innovation, and protected our national security. The Inflation Reduction Act aimed to make a significant investment in building renewable energy, electric vehicles, and other green technologies within the United States.

Both aforementioned Acts are discussed in the Democratic Party platform, and there is a strong likelihood that, if re-elected to power, the party will continue building on these programs. This could lead to further advancements in the technology sector, driving economic growth while addressing key issues such as climate change and job creation. Continued support for these initiatives could help position the U.S. as a leader in global technology and green energy markets, potentially reducing dependence on foreign supply chains and ensuring a more resilient economy.

Across their platform the Democratic Party has also made a strong commitment to supporting farmers. Primarily, the party wants to help farmers and ranchers adopt climate-smart practices, which make the land more resilient and increase profitability, while connecting them to new markets and premiums for sustainably produced commodities. This, as a result, will help to lower pollution and Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector.

The Democratic Party platform also aims to lower “gas prices by up to 25 cents per gallon, more in certain markets, particularly in the Midwest, by making cheaper, E15 ethanol-blended gasoline available each summer.” To achieve this, the party aims to increase production of clean energy, oil, and gas. The party has already implemented programs like Solar for All, which seeks to lower energy costs by enabling low-income areas to install solar infrastructure. Concurrently, the Democrats would like to provide additional tax credits, incentivizing former fossil fuel and power plant communities to draw clean energy and clean manufacturing.

Overall, the Democratic Party’s commitment to innovative technology, sustainable agriculture, and clean energy reflects a strategic vision for economic growth and environmental resilience. Industries can expect that Harris Administration will continue the groundwork laid out by the Biden Administration, expanding on currently implemented environmental policies and programs.

Republican Party Platform on Environmental Policy

When it comes to environmental policy, the Republican Party is proposing to eliminate the Green New Deal. The Green New Deal was introduced to the House of Representatives in February 2019 by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and includes proposals for various economic policy changes with the goal of reducing climate change. Some of the items in this policy include:

• Meeting 100% of the power demand through renewable and zero-emission energy sources
• Upgrading all buildings to achieve maximum energy efficiency
• Removing pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from manufacturing and industry as much as is technologically feasible
• Collaborating with farmers to remove pollution and GHG emissions from the agricultural sector
• Overhauling transportation systems to remove pollution and GHG emissions from the transportation sector

A key platform focus of the Republican Party is to make America “the dominant energy producer in the world.” Eliminating the Green New Deal and having to fulfill an increase in energy demand would cement the path forward for the development of more fossil fuel power plants. The need for development of new facilities, alongside the Republican Party’s promise to streamline the permitting process and end market-distorting restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal, could lead to the construction of new facilities in the industry, which would in turn increase the volume of associated environmental compliance efforts.

In a goal to support the U.S. auto industry, the Republican Party wants to reevaluate and potentially cancel mandates related to Electric Vehicles (EVs) while also preventing importation of foreign-made EVs (particularly from China). Reducing reliance on imported vehicles will lead to an increased production of vehicles, especially with a focus on gasoline/diesel powered vehicles. This, of course, would in turn increase the demand for gasoline/diesel auto production. On the other hand, industries such as EV and lithium-ion battery production may see a decline in domestic demand with the EV mandates removed.

Additionally, the Republican Party is committed to increasing affordable housing by reducing inflation, offering tax-incentives for first-time home buyers, and cutting regulations that increase housing costs. This will help increase the construction of new homes, positively affecting the lumber and construction industries.

The Republican Party’s approach to environmental policy prioritizes fossil fuel expansion and deregulation, aiming to enhance energy dominance. This approach may lead to reduced support for renewable initiatives and electric vehicle production, while also influencing housing development and related industries.

Bipartisan Policies with Environmental Impact

Though divided on many issues, there are a few key areas in which the Democrats and Republicans are more aligned. In turn, the environmental impacts associated with the following policies are most likely to occur, regardless of the party elected in power.

Both the Republican and Democratic parties have an interest in investing and leading the world in innovative technologies. The Republican Party has emphasized a focus on increasing the crypto, artificial intelligence (AI), and space industries during their tenure. Whereas the Democratic Party wants to continue scientific discovery and innovation in the areas of biotech, quantum computing, advanced materials, and AI. The crypto, quantum computing, and AI industries require a lot of power, and with that increase in demand there will need to be a higher energy supply. This will materially affect the energy industry, as there will need to be more energy production facilities constructed to meet this increase in demand. AI will also increase the need for data centers, as AI needs servers, storage systems, and networks to manage the flow of information.

The Democratic Party recognizes the need to strengthen U.S. domestic supply chains and industry to enhance national security and economic resilience. By implementing strategic measures, such as tariffs on certain imports and prioritizing access to advanced technologies, the party aims to bolster American manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign production. Meanwhile, some Republican proposals focus on increasing domestic industry by introducing tariffs on foreign goods. These tariffs would stimulate demand for American-made products and encourage the development of new facilities (or expansions of current facilities) in industries that comprise mostly of foreign imports.

Conclusion

As the U.S. national elections approach, the future of climate change and environmental policy hangs in the balance. The Democratic Party champions innovative technologies and sustainable agriculture, aiming to bolster economic growth and reduce emissions. In contrast, the Republican Party prioritizes energy independence through fossil fuel expansion and deregulation, potentially sidelining renewable initiatives. Yet, both parties recognize the significance of fostering innovation and strengthening domestic supply chains. The election will set the stage for the nation’s environmental trajectory, shaping not just policies but also the very landscape of America’s economic and ecological future.

The Trinity team actively tracks the implications of both federal and state elections and the impacts of proposed policy changes to the broader environmental regulations industry. Our subject matter experts can help advise clients across a variety of industries, from data centers to the oil and gas industry, on how their business may be impacted by upcoming elections. For inquiries, please contact Trinity at 866.830.0796 or email Daksh Aggarwal or Kai Greywall.