From wildfires to flooding, environmental events are increasing in complexity, frequency, and scale—while also becoming harder to predict. With climate change intensifying extreme environmental conditions and growing population density straining natural resources and ecosystems, organizations can no longer depend on historical data to accurately predict the future.  

Beyond extreme weather events, thawing permafrost is emerging as another unpredictable and rapidly accelerating challenge for industries operating in northern regions. Once considered stable, permafrost is now thawing unevenly, creating ground instability that threatens the structural integrity of mines, roads, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure. The mining sector in particular faces increased operational and environmental risks, including rising maintenance costs, potential tailings dam failures, and unanticipated disruptions to extraction activities. Because permafrost thaw does not occur uniformly, traditional engineering approaches and past environmental assessments are no longer sufficient for predicting long-term stability.

This decrease in predictability is driving a significant change in how businesses—particularly those operating in sectors that depend on natural resources, like mining, renewables, and real estate—approach environmental risk and impact. A recent survey by Trinity Consultants and independent research firm Verdantix revealed that 81% of organizations are committed to understanding the impacts of extreme weather events on their operations. Just 30% of organizations, however, have full visibility into nature-related risks, and a mere 28% have full visibility into nature-related dependencies. 

This disconnect highlights the need for organizations to take a structured approach to identifying risks and opportunities, assessing trends and dependencies, and forecasting potential scenarios and mitigations. 

Climate change and biodiversity loss are deeply interconnected. Biodiverse ecosystems provide critical climate services such as carbon sequestration and soil stabilization, helping mitigate the impacts of climate change. At the same time, climate change is disrupting habitats, degrading ecosystem processes, and reducing species diversity (leading some to become endangered or extinct).

In 2023, record-setting extreme weather events such as wildfires, floods, and hurricanes highlighted the urgent need to understand these environmental challenges. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), there were 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the U.S. in 2023, surpassing previous records, and more than two dozen in 2024.

Today, 8 in 10 organizations have committed to high or medium investments to understand the impacts of extreme weather events on their operations. These organizations are planning to invest in projects involving terrestrial impact modelling (e.g., through wildfires, hurricanes, and typhoons), sea-level analysis, and flood mitigation processes. The utilities sector, in particular, has a strong demand for insights into the impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure assets, as these events can significantly strain both current and future operations

Our survey results suggest that a lack of visibility and standardized measurements is inhibiting progress toward nature-positive outcomes. The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework encourages organizations to report on both their nature impacts and dependencies to mitigate this lack of visibility and prepare for the future. This preparedness enables firms to meet stringent reporting standards and adapt efficiently to evolving environmental regulations, recognizing that implementing software and establishing robust data governance processes require time and careful refinement. (See our blog   on how organizations are harnessing digital strategies to measure biodiversity impact and build stakeholder trust.)

Ecological forecasting and modeling enable organizations to forecast future scenarios, assess potential risks, and develop mitigation plans. By integrating predictive models into their environmental strategies, firms can increase resilience and improve decision-making processes related to environmental risks.

Utilities and other infrastructure-intensive sectors are already using these methods to understand how future climate-related events may affect their operations. Modeling worst-case scenarios and conducting due diligence in advance can help companies avoid costly disruptions and ensure compliance with evolving environmental regulations, according to the NOAA.

Among the strategies organizations can leverage to harness the power of ecological forecasting and modeling to enhance due diligence as well as social license are: 

As extreme weather events become more frequent, ecological forecasting and risk modeling is imperative. Read more about our services and learn more about how organizations are leveraging forecasting and modeling tools to address nature-related challenges within their operations in our research report, “Building the Business Case for Nature Positivity.”